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Statistics over the last 5 years of ASIC external administrations show peak in March. Perhaps validate his own point of view instinctive flow business cash is the traditionally low between December and February – with the holiday season which means additional costs payroll, two weeks, "Sales of the month" in December / January and nobody pays someone before mid-February. Behind this potential This year, however, is a tsunami uncomfortable catalysts that could have grave consequences:
1) the recession in the world – and the United States and most of Europe – particularly in the United Kingdom, where two major retailers before Christmas called administrators.
2) Behind the weakness observed in the Australian economy – GDP grew only 0.1% in the September quarter. Current projections are for further weakness in development.
3) Credit Crunch – the reduction of earning capacity loans (personal and corporate) dramatically. 4) The main suppliers to adjust their credit policies.
5) decrement credit insurers and rising premiums – making it harder for credit as collateral for large distributors.
6) The Fall of dollars – from 97C to 65C leading to import costs rose 50% vs. The timing of advance orders for the Christmas season has lost the largest increases – But in new orders for the current quarter? Margins will be squeezed as retailers try to make the product attractive environment for retail potentially less difficult.
7) China's exports fell by 2.8% (year to December 2008), and imports by 18%. Its growth rate GDP, while still impressive, is declining. These effects lead to reductions in various infrastructure programs.
resource boom bankruptcy. With the weakening of China and the fall in prices – does not mark the end of the boom in resources that support the Australian economy since much longer? Rio has announced 14,000 job cuts is a first reflection of the market. The Others closure of the mine to strengthen this weak market.
9) The loss of jobs – financial services have made a lot of jobs – but the latest ANZ cut 800 jobs just before Christmas is revealing its point of view of difficult conditions in the future. We expect more to come.
10) The job losses are now widely — Government of New South Wales, RIO, Adobe, Sony – all announced job cuts. Together, they have a "decline in consumer confidence" ripple effect.
11) The Stock Market Australia has reduced by 50% over the last 12 months. Most of the bad news into account stock prices. This gives you an almost perfect excuse for CEOs to dump bad news on one hitter for the second half of the year (and Director General themselves) are better.
12) The statement shows – ASX company publishes a monthly report of 6 to the interim figures end of February 2009. Expect write-downs/write-offs heavy side effects of the bank.
13) The personal liability of directors – with implications personal negotiation insolvently, administrators can not give the battle for the survival of heavy listed companies – which their counterparts in SMEs could develop. We have seen in recent Allco directors.
14) The decline in housing prices is seen in many suburbs, Bankers who reach to security for business loans.
15) The banks have a collective consciousness and absorb economic problems global and local has never known before. Its current low appetite for new loans were compounded by all the above effects on the quarter course and try out the weaker firms. Expect to see some big names in receivership or administration, when the banks say they have enough.
16) We hear over insolvency practitioners to be engaged internationally in the Australian market.
While recent injections of liquidity into the global financial system, a large recent stimulus package and lower interest rates will have a counterbalancing effect – they always have a delay associated with them (usually 6-8 months). However, if the current quarter is twice less serious than we hope strongly recommend watching closely managing its own risk:
– Your clients are signs of weakness – by example, late payments. If so, consider stronger tactics to get your loan money.
– Although it is sometimes difficult balance between sales and credit, if their customers are in the distribution sector of the disk Chase money – remember "who shouts the loudest gets paid first."
– Consider credit insurance to protect against bad loans – is less expensive if you have little history of bad debts.
– Review of personal risk. It is the family home in loans online? There are several different structures of the liberation of the house family and even to fund your growth, for example, financing factoring and inventory finance.
– If you think you may need additional funds for your business – it is easier (and cheaper) to collect money when they are desperate for it.
Hopefully in March 2009 will not be as bad as we can not predict, but unfortunately there is a significant negative dynamic Economics Australia driving the wrong way, which will tend to make 2009 a difficult year.
About the Author Tim Lea has specialised in cash flow finance internationally for the past 20 years and is a published author on the subject of factoring and invoice discounting. He has an MA in Economics and an MBA. His company, Cash Stream Financial acts as independent advisers and brokers on cash flow finance – factoring, invoice discounting and inventory finance. You can visit his web-site at http://www.cashstream.com.au for all aspects of factoring, invoice discounting and inventory finance.
If those Russian ships in Cuba was a threat, why not stock markets react to news?
FYI http://finance.yahoo.com/ market values often react to political uncertainty. But the conservatives here are much smarter than professional investors!
If the Russians were a concern, first, why not deal with the Republicans when everything is down in Georgia? Oh, I suppose that this is not a problem. Conservatives desperately fish something to throw at Obama instead of watching his own mess and show some responsibility.
Stock Market Crash – Robert Prechter on Bloomberg – Oct. 19, 2007
